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Super storms 'linked' to global warming

One of the fiercest tropical storms to hit Australia has scientists and environmentalists concerned that global warming could lead to more super cyclones.

Cyclone Monica this week gave Darwin its biggest scare since the Northern Territory capital was smashed by Cyclone Tracy on Christmas Eve, 1974, killing 65 people and leaving tens of thousands homeless.

The system narrowly missed Darwin but earlier ravaged the Aboriginal community of Maningrida, on the west Arnhem Land coast, when it was still a maximum category five storm with winds of more than 300kph.

In the wake of Monica and Cyclone Larry, another category five storm that left widespread damage in north Queensland last month, questions are being raised about whether climate change is to blame for such intense storms.

"We've had a few category five cyclones in the last 12 months," said the Australian Conservation Foundation's Monica Richter.

"Scientists generally concur that these storms are intensifying."

Some scientists are worried category five cyclones could become an even more common phenomenon in Australia, strengthened by seas warmed by climate change.

They believe agriculture will need to move to areas that are not prone to storms, rising sea levels will make island communities unlivable, and insurance companies will be unable to cope with the demand for cyclone damage claims.

It's a frighteningly bleak vision of the future, particularly given that some scientists say we have already crossed the threshold into a climactically altered world.

Some scientists argue the general increase in storm intensity proves that gradually warming seas are fuelling bigger cyclones and hurricanes, like Katrina which last year devastated the United States city of New Orleans.

"As individual cyclones (Larry and Monica), we cannot say they were caused by global warming but if we look at a pattern in recent years we are definitely getting more category four and five cyclones which point to climate change," said Dr Roger Stone of Queensland's Department of Primary Industries.

"It's a serious problem and while there may not have been an increase in the number of cyclones, their extremity is intensifying.

"And it's also a global problem. This will have an impact on many things, such as agriculture, across the world."

Dr Stone's comments are supported by two recent American studies which link global warming to increased storm intensity.

They showed that in the past 35 years, the worldwide incidence of category four and five cyclones and hurricanes almost doubled as ocean waters warmed by about half a degree.

Some scientists say the effects of climate change are already evident, pointing to rising sea levels that are threatening homes in the Torres Strait.

More than 2,000 people from at least six Torres Strait communities could lose their homes and be forced to relocate, prompting community members to apply to the State Emergency Service for disaster relief.

And it's not just scientists who are worried.

A recent Roy Morgan poll conducted for The Australian newspaper revealed as many as 70 per cent of Australians believe it is time to start addressing climate change.

Globally, insurers have begun convening conventions and forums on global warming and formulating plans to encourage governments to decrease carbon emissions.

But not all scientists are rushing to ring the alarm bell.

Principal research scientist with the Bureau of Meteorology, Dr John McBride, has conducted research into the potential link between global warming and cyclone intensity.

But he's not convinced there is the evidence to support the claim that the world is seeing more category five storms.

Dr McBride said technology used to monitor cyclones in the past was not as reliable as it is today.

Because of that, it's not easy to tell if the intensity of the cyclones has increased, he said.

"We are going to need more time to see; it may turn out to be moot point in years to come," Dr McBride said.

"We simply did not have the same technology 20 years ago that we have now."